The following is a summary of Trilogy’s 2009 year end reserves and reserves value, as evaluated and reported on by the independent engineering firm Paddock Lindstrom & Associates Ltd. (“Paddock Lindstrom”). The reserves report has been prepared in accordance with the National Instrument 51-101 definitions, standards and procedures.
The before-tax net present value of Trilogy’s proved plus probable reserves discounted at 10 percent decreased 14 percent from $1,306 million at the end of 2008 to $1,129 million at the end of 2009. The decrease is primarily attributed to changes in forecast commodity prices from the prior year. Trilogy’s proved plus probable natural gas reserves have increased 1.7 percent, from 319.8 Bcf at the end of 2008 to 325.1 Bcf at the end of 2009. Proved plus probable crude oil reserves have decreased 9 percent from 9,619.5 MBbl at the end of 2008 to 8,739.4 MBbl at the end of 2009. Natural gas liquids increased 6 percent from 8,647.0 MBbl at the end of 2008 to 9,160.5 MBbl at the end of 2009.
Trilogy’s reserves base is considered very strong, with solid proven reserves additions every year and probable reserves moving to the proven category. As in the past, Trilogy was able to replace all of the produced reserves at a very attractive cost without adding reserves in the undeveloped category. Proved reserves constitute 69 percent of the total booked reserves, the value has been evaluated using a conservative blow-down scenario and do not include any of the development locations that Trilogy’s has identified on known or emerging resource plays on Trilogy acreage.
The following table summarizes Trilogy’s gross reserves (before royalties and taxes) and reserves value for the year ended December 31, 2009 using forecast prices and costs.
| Reserve Category |
Natural Gas |
Crude Oil |
Natural Gas Liquid |
Boe (6:1) |
|
Before tax
Net Present Value ($millions) |
| |
|
BCF |
MBbl |
MBbl |
MBoe |
0% |
5% |
10% |
| Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
Developed Producing |
204.8 |
5,070.6 |
5,777.7 |
44,985.8 |
1,430.1 |
1,041.6 |
822.7 |
| |
Developed Non-Producing |
18.8 |
458.4 |
523.7 |
4,119.1 |
121.9 |
81.3 |
58.9 |
| |
Undeveloped |
3.1 |
— |
40.4 |
562.3 |
19.9 |
9.9 |
5.7 |
| Total Proved |
226.8 |
5,529.0 |
6,341.8 |
49,667.2 |
1,571.9 |
1,132.8 |
887.3 |
| Probable |
98.3 |
3,210.4 |
2,818.6 |
22,414.3 |
854.1 |
406.4 |
241.5 |
| Total Proved plus Probable |
325.1 |
8,739.4 |
9,160.4 |
72,081.6 |
2,426.1 |
1,539.2 |
1,128.9 |
Notes
2009 Yearend Reserve Reconciliation
Total proved reserves were 49,667 MBoe and proved plus probable reserves were 72,082 MBoe as of December 31, 2009, representing increases of 1.6 percent and 0.7 percent respectively as compared to reserves reported as at the 2008 year end.
The following table sets forth the reconciliation of Trilogy’s gross reserves for the year ended December 31, 2009 using forecast prices and costs:
| |
Total Proved Reserves |
Probable Reserves |
Total P+P Reserves |
| |
Oil |
Gas |
NGL |
BOE |
Oil |
Gas |
NGL |
BOE |
Oil |
Gas |
NGL |
BOE |
| |
MBbl |
Bcf |
MBbl |
MBoe |
MBbl |
Bcf |
MBbl |
MBoe |
MBbl |
Bcf |
MBbl |
MBoe |
| Dec. 31, 2008 |
6,124 |
220 |
6,022 |
48,860 |
3,496 |
100 |
2,625 |
22,713 |
9,619 |
320 |
8,647 |
71,573 |
| 2009 Production |
(675) |
(34) |
(872) |
(7,220) |
— |
— |
— |
— |
(675) |
(34) |
(872) |
(7,220) |
| Tech. Revisions |
2 |
13 |
502 |
2,630 |
(326) |
(13) |
(104) |
(2,519) |
(325) |
0 |
399 |
111 |
| Reserve Additions |
78 |
28 |
677 |
5,372 |
41 |
11 |
292 |
2,199 |
119 |
39 |
969 |
7,570 |
| Acquisition |
— |
— |
13 |
25 |
— |
— |
5 |
9 |
— |
— |
18 |
34 |
| Econ. Factors |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
13 |
— |
— |
— |
13 |
| Dec. 31, 2009 |
5,529 |
227 |
6,342 |
49,667 |
3,211 |
98 |
2,819 |
22,414 |
8,739 |
325 |
9,161 |
72,082 |
Note
Reserve Replacement
Trilogy produced 7,220 MBoe of reserves in 2009 (19,780 Boe/d) and, through a successful drilling, completion and workover program and added a total of 8,002 MBoe of proved reserves and 7,694 MBoe of proved plus probable reserves from new additions related to capital investment and technical revisions (excluding acquisitions). Based on a total proved comparison, this is a 111 percent replacement of produced reserves and a 107 percent replacement of proved plus probable reserves. Since inception, Trilogy has strived to replace produced reserves at competitive finding and development costs. Trilogy’s 2009 results reflect the high quality of Trilogy’s assets and staff. Year over year reserve replacement will continue to be a top priority in Trilogy’s strategy.
For the past four years, Trilogy’s undeveloped reserves category has decreased year over year through the transfer of undeveloped reserves into the developed category. Trilogy’s proved undeveloped (PUD) reserve component has remained essentially unchanged at 569 MBoe at the end of 2008 versus 562 MBoe at the end of 2009. Trilogy does not book undeveloped locations as part of its reserves booking strategy. Reserves are booked after capital has been spent to prove the reserves, reducing the risk of negative reserve revisions in the future should the necessary work to enable such reserves’ reclassification to the developed category not occur. Proved undeveloped reserves represent only one percent of the total proved reserves and proved plus probable undeveloped reserves account for two percent of proved plus probable reserves.
Technical Revisions
Trilogy has consistently reported positive technical revisions to its proved and probable reserve categories. These are reserves that could have been assigned to the well when it was first drilled and completed, however National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (NI 51-101) and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluations Handbook dictate that the evaluator must be at least 90 percent confident the producible reserves are present to be included as proven and 50 percent certain for probable reserve assignment. A significant portion of Trilogy’s reserves are in tight reservoirs that tend to have lower decline rates over time and will typically produce more reserves than expected on first evaluation. As a result, it may take up to three years for a well’s total reserves to be accurately assigned. Trilogy has been evaluating all of the producing assets to ensure that there is a thorough understanding of the associated reservoir and the production capabilities.
Reserves Life Index
Trilogy’s Reserve Life Index (RLI) for Total Proved reserves, has increased from 6.5 years to 6.9 years at the end of 2009. Based on total Proved plus Probable reserves the RLI has increased from 9.5 years at the end of 2008 to 10.0 years for the same period.
Proved Reserve Forecast
The graph below illustrates Trilogy's annual production forecast for Total Proved Reserves from the Reserve Reports for the past six years. Trilogy's annual production forecast increased from inception until 2007 when the annual production forecast declined due to asset sales in Marten Creek and Southern Alberta.
Production Decline Rate
Trilogy’s production decline rate has improved over the past three years due to the sale of Trilogy’s Marten Creek property and Southern Alberta assets. These properties had higher production declines relative to Trilogy’s remaining producing properties. The dispositions resulted in an improvement in the average quality of Trilogy’s reserve base, a lower production decline rate and a higher RLI. The graph below shows the annual average base production decline for a ten year period, illustrating an increase in the quality of Trilogy’s assets since its inception.
Ten Year Base Production Decline Rate (%)
Finding and Development Costs
Trilogy’s land base has provided significant drilling and completion opportunities that have been exploited over the past few years. The drilling success rate reflects the quality of the prospect inventory, undeveloped land and the producing asset base. The reserve potential of these lands, both developed and undeveloped, is expected to continue to provide Trilogy with low cost reserve additions. Trilogy has continued to acquire high quality land in its core areas to maintain its prospect inventory, ensuring exposure to multiple play types and benefits from developing technology.
|
2009 Working Interest Capital Expenditures |
Change in Future Capital Expenditures |
Total F&D Capital |
| (millions of dollars) |
2009 Capital |
Proved |
P+P |
Proved |
P+P |
| Land |
2.8 |
|
|
|
|
| Geological and geophysical |
1.3 |
|
|
|
|
| Drilling and completion |
56.4 |
(2.3) |
(3.0) |
|
|
| Production equipment, facilities and inventory |
20.7 |
|
|
|
|
| Drilling Credits |
(7.4) |
|
|
|
|
| 2009 Presley Project Capital |
15.3 |
|
|
|
|
| Total capital expenditures |
89.1 |
(2.3) |
(3.0) |
86.8 |
86.1 |
Total capital expenditures
(excluding 2009 Presley Project Capital) |
73.8 |
|
|
71.5 |
70.8 |
Based on 2009 total capital expenditures, including the Presley Pipeline and Kayob North Plant projects, Trilogy's finding and development costs for reserve additions were $10.85/Boe for proven reserves and $11.19/Boe for proven plus probable reserves for the year ended December 31, 2009. Excluding the Presley project capital of $15.3 million, finding and development costs are further reduced to $8.94/Boe for proven reserves and $9.20/Boe for proven plus probable reserves.
| 2009 F&D Cost |
Proved Capital |
Proved Reserves |
Proved F&D |
Proved + Probable Capital |
Proved + Probable Reserves |
Proved + Probable
F&D |
| ($MM) |
MBoe |
$/Boe |
($MM) |
MBoe |
$/Boe |
| Extensions, discoveries and revisions including Presley project capital |
86.8 |
8,002 |
10.85 |
86.1 |
7,694 |
11.19 |
| Extensions, discoveries and revisions excluding Presley project capital |
71.5 |
8,002 |
8.94 |
70.8 |
7,694 |
9.20 |
It is important to note that infrastructure development such as the Presley Pipeline and Kaybob North Plant expansion capital projects provide enduring benefit to Trilogy's existing reserve base, in addition to future reserve additions.
Finding and development costs when calculated over the three-year period ended December 31, 2009, including the costs associated with the Presley projects were $11.73/Boe for proven reserves and $10.04/Boe for proven plus probable reserves. These numbers illustrate consistency in the cost of finding and developing the reserves on Trilogy's land base. Calculating finding and development costs over a longer period reduces the effect of spending capital in one year and booking the related reserves in the following year.
| 3 Year Average F&D Cost |
Proved Capital |
Proved Reserves |
Proved F&D |
Proved + Probable Capital |
Proved + Probable Reserves |
Proved + Probable F&D |
| ($MM) |
MBoe |
$/Boe |
($MM) |
MBoe |
$/Boe |
| Extensions, discoveries and revisions including Presley project capital |
298.1 |
25,415 |
11.73 |
288.9 |
28,764 |
10.04 |
| Extensions, discoveries and revisions excluding Presley project capital |
282.8 |
25,415 |
11.13 |
273.6 |
28,764 |
9.51 |
Pre-Tax Net Asset Value
Net (Appraised) Asset Value Before Tax
(millions of dollars as at December 31, 2009) |
NPV @ 5% |
NPV @ 10% |
| Proved plus probable reserve value (1) |
1,539.2 |
1,128.9 |
| Undeveloped Land Value (2) |
70.6 |
70.6
6 |
| Seismic value (3) |
26.1 |
26.1 |
| Inventory (3) |
4.2 |
4.2 |
Total petroleum and natural gas assets |
1,640.1 |
1,229.8 |
| Net debt (4) |
246.4 |
246.4 |
| Net (appraised) asset value |
1,393.7 |
983.4 |
| Trust Units outstanding at December 31, 2009 (Fully Diluted) |
113,493,834 |
| Net (appraised) asset value per unit at December 31, 2009 |
$12.28 |
$8.66 |
| |
|
|
Notes
Commodity Price Forecast
| Paddock Lindstrom & Associates Ltd. |
|
|
| December 31, 2009 Price Forecast |
|
|
|
| Year |
WTI @ Cushing |
Edm. Ref. Price |
Henry HUB |
AECO C |
CDN/US Exchange Rate |
| |
$US/Bbl |
$C/Bbl |
US$/MMBTU |
C$/MMBTU |
|
| 2010 |
80.0 |
82.43 |
6.00 |
5.82 |
0.95 |
| 2011 |
82.5 |
85.02 |
6.50 |
6.29 |
0.95 |
| 2012 |
85.0 |
87.62 |
7.00 |
6.77 |
0.95 |
| 2013 |
90.0 |
92.84 |
7.50 |
7.28 |
0.95 |
| 2014 |
95.0 |
98.07 |
8.00 |
7.80 |
0.95 |
| Next 5 years avg. |
|
|
|
|
|
Note