TET C$32.59-0.20-0.610%

Reserves

2012 Year End Reserves Report Highlights

  • Added 19.2 MMBoe of proved reserves (56 percent oil and NGLs) and 20.6 MMBoe of proved plus probable reserves (59 percent oil and NGLs)
  • Replaced 157 percent of 2012 produced reserves when compared to proved reserve additions and 168 percent when compared to proved plus probable reserve additions
  • Proved plus probable reserve value at NPV 10 decreased 4.5 percent from $1,438 million at the end of 2011 to $1,373 million at the end of 2012, in a very challenging natural gas price environment where prices over the next five years are forecasted to decrease by an average of 15 percent for natural gas and 7 percent for crude oil when compared with the 2011 year end price forecast
  • Finding and development costs were $17.60/Boe for total proved reserves and $16.63/Boe for proved plus probable reserves on capital expenditures $351.3 million including corporate expenses and net of dispositions of undeveloped land
  • Reserve life index decreased to 7.9 years for proved plus probable reserves in 2012 as compared to 8.7 years in 2011, reflecting the 20 percent growth in production over 2012 and a 9.5 percent growth in the proved plus probable reserve base over the same period.

The following is a summary of Trilogy’s 2012 year end reserves and reserves value, as evaluated and reported on by the independent engineering firm InSite Petroleum Consultants Ltd. (“InSite”). The reserves report has been prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 definitions, standards and procedures.

Proved plus probable crude oil reserves have increased 28 percent from 15,830 MBbl at the end of 2011 to 20,332 MBbl at the end of 2012. Natural gas liquids increased 23 percent from 12,292 MBbl at the end of 2011 to 15,091 MBbl at the end of 2012. Trilogy’s proved plus probable natural gas reserves have increased 2 percent, from 362.7 Bcf at the end of 2011 to 369.2 Bcf at the end of 2012.

The Company considers its reserves base to be very strong, with solid proven and probable reserve additions and probable reserves moving to the proven category. As in the past, Trilogy was able to replace produced reserves at a very attractive cost without adding reserves in the undeveloped category. Proved undeveloped reserves represent only 0.1 percent of the total proved reserves.

The following table summarizes Trilogy’s gross reserves (before royalties and tax) and reserves value for the year ended December 31, 2012 using forecast prices and costs.

Reserve Category

Natural  Gas

Crude Oil

Natural Gas Liquids

Boe  (6:1)

 

Before tax

Net Present Value ($millions)

 

 

BCF

MBbl

MBbl

MBoe

0%

5%

10%

Proved

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Developed producing

243.1

13,558.6

10,340.5

64,422.1

1,710.5

1,279.9

1,029.0

 

Developed non-producing

23.6

1,292.4

898.4

6,130.4

141.1

107.9

87.0

 

Undeveloped

0.4

0.0

8.0

80.7

5.3

3.1

2.1

Total Proved

267.2

14,851.0

11,246.9

70,633.2

1,856.9

1,390.9

1,118.1

Probable

102.0

5481.4

3,844.3

26,325.8

801.8

410.9

255.3

Total Proved plus Probable 

369.2

20,332.4

15,091.2

96,958.9

2,658.7

1,801.8

1,373.4

Notes
  1. Columns and rows may not add due to rounding
  2. Reserve values were determined by InSite as of December 31, 2012, using the forward-pricing assumptions in effect by the firm for that date.
  3. InSite evaluated 100 percent of Trilogy’s reserves.
  4. No value has been assigned to tangible assets other than those associated with proved producing reserves.
  5. Reserve values have been evaluated under a blow-down scenario.
  6. Trilogy’s financial instruments, which extend past January 1, 2013, have not been valued by InSite.

2012 Year End Reserve Reconciliation

Total proved reserves were 70,633 MBoe and proved plus probable reserves were 96,959 MBoe as of December 31, 2012, which reflect increases of 11 percent and 9.5 percent respectively as compared to Trilogy’s reserves at the 2011 year end.The following table sets forth the reconciliation of Trilogy’s gross reserves for the year ended December 31, 2012 using forecast prices and costs:

 

Total Proved Reserves

Probable Reserves

Total P+P Reserves

 

Oil

Gas

NGL

BOE

Oil

Gas

NGL

BOE

Oil

Gas

NGL

BOE

 

MBbl

Bcf

MBbl

MBoe

MBbl

Bcf

MBbl

MBoe

MBbl

Bcf

MBbl

MBoe

Dec 31, 2011

11,005 

260

9,291 

63,665 

4,824 

103 

3,001 

24,913 

15,830 

363

12,292 

88,578 

2012 Production

(3,350)

(44)

(1,579)

(12,265)

0 

0 

0 

0 

(3,350)

(44)

(1,579)

(12,265)

Technical Revisions

739 

3

2,399 

3,561 

(1,183)

(10)

610 

(2,274)

(444)

(8)

3,009 

1,287 

Reserve Additions

6,456 

48

1,136 

15,672 

1,840 

10 

234 

3,686 

8,296 

58

1,370 

19,359 

Acquisition

0 

0

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0

0 

0 

Econ Factors

0 

0

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0

0 

0 

Dec 31, 2012

14,851 

267

11,247 

70,633 

5,481 

102 

3,844 

26,326 

20,332 

369

15,091 

96,959 

Note
  1. Columns and rows may not add due to rounding

Reserve Replacement

Trilogy produced 12,265 MBoe of reserves in 2012 (33,510 Boe/d) and through a successful drilling, completion and workover program, added 19,233 MBoe of proved reserves and 20,646 MBoe of proved plus probable reserves from new additions as a result of capital investment and technical revisions. Based on total proved reserve additions in 2012, Trilogy replaced 157 percent of its produced reserves and 168 percent of its proved plus probable reserve additions.Historically, Trilogy’s undeveloped reserves category has contributed a very small portion to the overall reserve base. Trilogy’s proved undeveloped reserve component is 80.7 MBoe, or 0.1 percent of its 70,633 MBoe total proved reserves.

Technical Revisions

Trilogy has consistently reported positive technical revisions to its proved and proved plus probable reserve categories. For 2012, Trilogy reports positive revisions for total proved reserves on all fluids. For proved plus probable reserves, oil was negatively revised with 444 MBbls from a total of 18,830 MBbls or 3 percent, mainly from the wells drilled on the east side of the Kaybob Montney oil pool. Due to low gas prices, Trilogy elected to spend more time and efforts towards liquids properties; therefore gas reserves were revised downward 8 Bcf, or 2 percent. Trilogy anticipates that part of these reserves will be rebooked once natural gas prices improve. Presley Montney horizontal gas wells did not experience any significant revisions. Natural gas liquids were revised upward by 3 MMBbls based on the assumption that once the existing Natural Recovery Agreement with Aux Sable expires, Trilogy will elect to extend the arrangements under similar terms, or construct its own deep cut gas plant to recover the natural gas liquids from the produced natural gas.

Proved Reserve Forecast

The graph below illustrates Trilogy’s annual production forecast for Total Proved Reserves from the Reserve Reports for the past nine years. Trilogy’s annual production forecast increased from inception until 2007 when the annual production forecast declined due to the asset sales in Marten Creek and Southern Alberta. The reserve forecast increased again in 2010 through 2012 as Trilogy converted from an energy trust to a growth oriented energy corporation and developed its Kaybob Montney oil and gas pools.

 

Annual Production Forecasts (Total Proved Reserves, MBoe/year)

Production Decline Rate

Trilogy’s production decline rate has improved over the past three years, subsequent to the sale of the Marten Creek property and Southern Alberta assets, which had higher production declines relative to Trilogy’s remaining producing properties. The disposition of these properties resulted in an improvement in the average quality of Trilogy’s reserve base, a lower production decline rate and a higher RLI.

Trilogy’s base production forecast assumes a 19 percent decline for 2013 and 16 percent for 2014 for total proved reserves. For proved plus probable reserves the 2013 decline is 13 percent while 2014 production will decline 12 percent.

Finding and Development Costs

Since inception, Trilogy has successfully exploited many of the opportunities afforded by its land base. Its success rate reflects the high quality of the Company’s prospect inventory, its undeveloped land base and producing asset base as well as the technical expertise of Trilogy’s staff. The reserve potential of these lands, both developed and undeveloped, is expected to continue to provide Trilogy with low cost reserve additions. One of Trilogy’s key objectives is to continue to acquire what it considers high quality land in its core areas to maintain its prospect inventory and to ensure the Company has exposure to multiple play types and developing technology.

 

 

Change in FDC

Total Capital

2012 Working Interest Capital Expenditures (millions of dollars)

Proved 

Proved plus Probable

Proved 

Proved plus Probable

Land

1.0

 

 

1.0

1.0

Geological and geophysical

2.1

 

 

2.1

2.1

Drilling and completion

265.9

(12.9)

(8.0)

253.0

257.9

Production equipment, facilities and inventory

80.3

 

 

80.3

80.3

2012 Dispositions net of acquisitions & corporate assets

2.0

 

 

 2.0

 2.0

Total capital expenditures

351.3

(12.9)

(8.0)

338.4

343.3

Reserve additions of 19.2 MMBoe of proved reserves and 20.6 MMBoe proved plus probable reserves during 2012 generated a finding and development (“F&D”) cost of $17.60/Boe for proved reserves and $16.63/Boe for proved plus probable reserves.

When calculated over the three year period ended December 31, 2012, F&D costs were $16.64/Boe for proven reserves and $15.56/Boe for proven plus probable reserves. These numbers illustrate consistency in the cost of finding and developing the reserves on Trilogy’s land base. Calculating F&D costs over a longer period reduces the effect of spending capital in one year and booking reserves in the following year.

 

Year

 

 

Proved Capital

Proved Reserves

Proved F&D

Proved + Probable Capital

Proved + Probable Reserves

Proved + Probable F&D

 

$million

MBoe

$/Boe 

$million

MBoe

$/Boe

Extensions, discoveries and revisions including FDC

 

2010

164.1

13,143

12.49

167.7

14,416

11.63

2011

359.0

19,387

18.52

355.0

20,606

17.23

2012

338.4

19,233

17.60

343.3

20,646

16.63

3 Year Average F&D Cost

 

861.5

51,763

16.64

866.0

55,668

15.56

Commodity Price Forecast

InSite Petroleum Consultants Ltd. December 31, 2012 Price Forecast

Year

WTI @ Cushing

Edm.  Ref.         Price

Henry HUB

AECO C

CDN/US Exchange

 

$US/Bbl

$C/Bbl

US$/MMBTU

C$/MMBTU

Rate

2013

92.00

90.00

3.75

3.34

1.00

2014

94.00

91.36

4.25

3.83

1.00

2015

96.00

93.92

4.75

4.33

1.00

2016

98.00

95.88

5.20

4.77

1.00

2017

100.00

97.84

5.55

5.11

1.00

Next 5 years avg.

106.16

103.86

6.25

5.78

1.00

Note
  1. All prices escalated at 2% per year after 2029