2012 Year End Reserves Report Highlights
-
Added 19.2 MMBoe of proved reserves (56 percent oil and NGLs) and 20.6 MMBoe of proved plus probable reserves (59 percent oil and NGLs)
-
Replaced 157 percent of 2012 produced reserves when compared to proved reserve additions and 168 percent when compared to proved plus probable reserve additions
-
Proved plus probable reserve value at NPV 10 decreased 4.5 percent from $1,438 million at the end of 2011 to $1,373 million at the end of 2012, in a very challenging natural gas price environment where prices over the next five years are forecasted to decrease by an average of 15 percent for natural gas and 7 percent for crude oil when compared with the 2011 year end price forecast
-
Finding and development costs were $17.60/Boe for total proved reserves and $16.63/Boe for proved plus probable reserves on capital expenditures $351.3 million including corporate expenses and net of dispositions of undeveloped land
-
Reserve life index decreased to 7.9 years for proved plus probable reserves in 2012 as compared to 8.7 years in 2011, reflecting the 20 percent growth in production over 2012 and a 9.5 percent growth in the proved plus probable reserve base over the same period.
The following is a summary of Trilogy’s 2012 year end reserves and reserves value, as evaluated and reported on by the independent engineering firm InSite Petroleum Consultants Ltd. (“InSite”). The reserves report has been prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 definitions, standards and procedures.
Proved plus probable crude oil reserves have increased 28 percent from 15,830 MBbl at the end of 2011 to 20,332 MBbl at the end of 2012. Natural gas liquids increased 23 percent from 12,292 MBbl at the end of 2011 to 15,091 MBbl at the end of 2012. Trilogy’s proved plus probable natural gas reserves have increased 2 percent, from 362.7 Bcf at the end of 2011 to 369.2 Bcf at the end of 2012.
The Company considers its reserves base to be very strong, with solid proven and probable reserve additions and probable reserves moving to the proven category. As in the past, Trilogy was able to replace produced reserves at a very attractive cost without adding reserves in the undeveloped category. Proved undeveloped reserves represent only 0.1 percent of the total proved reserves.
The following table summarizes Trilogy’s gross reserves (before royalties and tax) and reserves value for the year ended December 31, 2012 using forecast prices and costs.
|
Reserve Category
|
Natural Gas
|
Crude Oil
|
Natural Gas Liquids
|
Boe (6:1)
|
Before tax
Net Present Value ($millions)
|
|
|
|
BCF
|
MBbl
|
MBbl
|
MBoe
|
0%
|
5%
|
10%
|
|
Proved
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed producing
|
243.1
|
13,558.6
|
10,340.5
|
64,422.1
|
1,710.5
|
1,279.9
|
1,029.0
|
|
|
Developed non-producing
|
23.6
|
1,292.4
|
898.4
|
6,130.4
|
141.1
|
107.9
|
87.0
|
|
|
Undeveloped
|
0.4
|
0.0
|
8.0
|
80.7
|
5.3
|
3.1
|
2.1
|
|
Total Proved
|
267.2
|
14,851.0
|
11,246.9
|
70,633.2
|
1,856.9
|
1,390.9
|
1,118.1
|
|
Probable
|
102.0
|
5481.4
|
3,844.3
|
26,325.8
|
801.8
|
410.9
|
255.3
|
|
Total Proved plus Probable
|
369.2
|
20,332.4
|
15,091.2
|
96,958.9
|
2,658.7
|
1,801.8
|
1,373.4
|
Notes
-
Columns and rows may not add due to rounding
-
Reserve values were determined by InSite as of December 31, 2012, using the forward-pricing assumptions in effect by the firm for that date.
-
InSite evaluated 100 percent of Trilogy’s reserves.
-
No value has been assigned to tangible assets other than those associated with proved producing reserves.
-
Reserve values have been evaluated under a blow-down scenario.
-
Trilogy’s financial instruments, which extend past January 1, 2013, have not been valued by InSite.
2012 Year End Reserve Reconciliation
Total proved reserves were 70,633 MBoe and proved plus probable reserves were 96,959 MBoe as of December 31, 2012, which reflect increases of 11 percent and 9.5 percent respectively as compared to Trilogy’s reserves at the 2011 year end.The following table sets forth the reconciliation of Trilogy’s gross reserves for the year ended December 31, 2012 using forecast prices and costs:
|
|
Total Proved Reserves
|
Probable Reserves
|
Total P+P Reserves
|
|
|
Oil
|
Gas
|
NGL
|
BOE
|
Oil
|
Gas
|
NGL
|
BOE
|
Oil
|
Gas
|
NGL
|
BOE
|
|
|
MBbl
|
Bcf
|
MBbl
|
MBoe
|
MBbl
|
Bcf
|
MBbl
|
MBoe
|
MBbl
|
Bcf
|
MBbl
|
MBoe
|
|
Dec 31, 2011
|
11,005
|
260
|
9,291
|
63,665
|
4,824
|
103
|
3,001
|
24,913
|
15,830
|
363
|
12,292
|
88,578
|
|
2012 Production
|
(3,350)
|
(44)
|
(1,579)
|
(12,265)
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
(3,350)
|
(44)
|
(1,579)
|
(12,265)
|
|
Technical Revisions
|
739
|
3
|
2,399
|
3,561
|
(1,183)
|
(10)
|
610
|
(2,274)
|
(444)
|
(8)
|
3,009
|
1,287
|
|
Reserve Additions
|
6,456
|
48
|
1,136
|
15,672
|
1,840
|
10
|
234
|
3,686
|
8,296
|
58
|
1,370
|
19,359
|
|
Acquisition
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Econ Factors
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Dec 31, 2012
|
14,851
|
267
|
11,247
|
70,633
|
5,481
|
102
|
3,844
|
26,326
|
20,332
|
369
|
15,091
|
96,959
|
Note
-
Columns and rows may not add due to rounding
Reserve Replacement
Trilogy produced 12,265 MBoe of reserves in 2012 (33,510 Boe/d) and through a successful drilling, completion and workover program, added 19,233 MBoe of proved reserves and 20,646 MBoe of proved plus probable reserves from new additions as a result of capital investment and technical revisions. Based on total proved reserve additions in 2012, Trilogy replaced 157 percent of its produced reserves and 168 percent of its proved plus probable reserve additions.Historically, Trilogy’s undeveloped reserves category has contributed a very small portion to the overall reserve base. Trilogy’s proved undeveloped reserve component is 80.7 MBoe, or 0.1 percent of its 70,633 MBoe total proved reserves.
Technical Revisions
Trilogy has consistently reported positive technical revisions to its proved and proved plus probable reserve categories. For 2012, Trilogy reports positive revisions for total proved reserves on all fluids. For proved plus probable reserves, oil was negatively revised with 444 MBbls from a total of 18,830 MBbls or 3 percent, mainly from the wells drilled on the east side of the Kaybob Montney oil pool. Due to low gas prices, Trilogy elected to spend more time and efforts towards liquids properties; therefore gas reserves were revised downward 8 Bcf, or 2 percent. Trilogy anticipates that part of these reserves will be rebooked once natural gas prices improve. Presley Montney horizontal gas wells did not experience any significant revisions. Natural gas liquids were revised upward by 3 MMBbls based on the assumption that once the existing Natural Recovery Agreement with Aux Sable expires, Trilogy will elect to extend the arrangements under similar terms, or construct its own deep cut gas plant to recover the natural gas liquids from the produced natural gas.
Proved Reserve Forecast
The graph below illustrates Trilogy’s annual production forecast for Total Proved Reserves from the Reserve Reports for the past nine years. Trilogy’s annual production forecast increased from inception until 2007 when the annual production forecast declined due to the asset sales in Marten Creek and Southern Alberta. The reserve forecast increased again in 2010 through 2012 as Trilogy converted from an energy trust to a growth oriented energy corporation and developed its Kaybob Montney oil and gas pools.
Annual Production Forecasts (Total Proved Reserves, MBoe/year) 
Production Decline Rate
Trilogy’s production decline rate has improved over the past three years, subsequent to the sale of the Marten Creek property and Southern Alberta assets, which had higher production declines relative to Trilogy’s remaining producing properties. The disposition of these properties resulted in an improvement in the average quality of Trilogy’s reserve base, a lower production decline rate and a higher RLI.
Trilogy’s base production forecast assumes a 19 percent decline for 2013 and 16 percent for 2014 for total proved reserves. For proved plus probable reserves the 2013 decline is 13 percent while 2014 production will decline 12 percent.
Finding and Development Costs
Since inception, Trilogy has successfully exploited many of the opportunities afforded by its land base. Its success rate reflects the high quality of the Company’s prospect inventory, its undeveloped land base and producing asset base as well as the technical expertise of Trilogy’s staff. The reserve potential of these lands, both developed and undeveloped, is expected to continue to provide Trilogy with low cost reserve additions. One of Trilogy’s key objectives is to continue to acquire what it considers high quality land in its core areas to maintain its prospect inventory and to ensure the Company has exposure to multiple play types and developing technology.
|
|
|
Change in FDC
|
Total Capital
|
|
2012 Working Interest Capital Expenditures (millions of dollars)
|
Proved
|
Proved plus Probable
|
Proved
|
Proved plus Probable
|
|
Land
|
1.0
|
|
|
1.0
|
1.0
|
|
Geological and geophysical
|
2.1
|
|
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
|
Drilling and completion
|
265.9
|
(12.9)
|
(8.0)
|
253.0
|
257.9
|
|
Production equipment, facilities and inventory
|
80.3
|
|
|
80.3
|
80.3
|
|
2012 Dispositions net of acquisitions & corporate assets
|
2.0
|
|
|
2.0
|
2.0
|
|
Total capital expenditures
|
351.3
|
(12.9)
|
(8.0)
|
338.4
|
343.3
|
Reserve additions of 19.2 MMBoe of proved reserves and 20.6 MMBoe proved plus probable reserves during 2012 generated a finding and development (“F&D”) cost of $17.60/Boe for proved reserves and $16.63/Boe for proved plus probable reserves.
When calculated over the three year period ended December 31, 2012, F&D costs were $16.64/Boe for proven reserves and $15.56/Boe for proven plus probable reserves. These numbers illustrate consistency in the cost of finding and developing the reserves on Trilogy’s land base. Calculating F&D costs over a longer period reduces the effect of spending capital in one year and booking reserves in the following year.
|
|
Year
|
Proved Capital
|
Proved Reserves
|
Proved F&D
|
Proved + Probable Capital
|
Proved + Probable Reserves
|
Proved + Probable F&D
|
|
|
$million
|
MBoe
|
$/Boe
|
$million
|
MBoe
|
$/Boe
|
|
Extensions, discoveries and revisions including FDC
|
2010
|
164.1
|
13,143
|
12.49
|
167.7
|
14,416
|
11.63
|
|
2011
|
359.0
|
19,387
|
18.52
|
355.0
|
20,606
|
17.23
|
|
2012
|
338.4
|
19,233
|
17.60
|
343.3
|
20,646
|
16.63
|
|
3 Year Average F&D Cost
|
|
861.5
|
51,763
|
16.64
|
866.0
|
55,668
|
15.56
|
Commodity Price Forecast
InSite Petroleum Consultants Ltd. December 31, 2012 Price Forecast
|
Year
|
WTI @ Cushing
|
Edm. Ref. Price
|
Henry HUB
|
AECO C
|
CDN/US Exchange
|
|
|
$US/Bbl
|
$C/Bbl
|
US$/MMBTU
|
C$/MMBTU
|
Rate
|
|
2013
|
92.00
|
90.00
|
3.75
|
3.34
|
1.00
|
|
2014
|
94.00
|
91.36
|
4.25
|
3.83
|
1.00
|
|
2015
|
96.00
|
93.92
|
4.75
|
4.33
|
1.00
|
|
2016
|
98.00
|
95.88
|
5.20
|
4.77
|
1.00
|
|
2017
|
100.00
|
97.84
|
5.55
|
5.11
|
1.00
|
|
Next 5 years avg.
|
106.16
|
103.86
|
6.25
|
5.78
|
1.00
|
Note
-
All prices escalated at 2% per year after 2029