TET C$11.740.272.354%

Reserves

The following is a summary of Trilogy’s 2009 year end reserves and reserves value, as evaluated and reported on by the independent engineering firm Paddock Lindstrom & Associates Ltd. (“Paddock Lindstrom”). The reserves report has been prepared in accordance with the National Instrument 51-101 definitions, standards and procedures.

The before-tax net present value of Trilogy’s proved plus probable reserves discounted at 10 percent decreased 14 percent from $1,306 million at the end of 2008 to $1,129 million at the end of 2009. The decrease is primarily attributed to changes in forecast commodity prices from the prior year. Trilogy’s proved plus probable natural gas reserves have increased 1.7 percent, from 319.8 Bcf at the end of 2008 to 325.1 Bcf at the end of 2009. Proved plus probable crude oil reserves have decreased 9 percent from 9,619.5 MBbl at the end of 2008 to 8,739.4 MBbl at the end of 2009. Natural gas liquids increased 6 percent from 8,647.0 MBbl at the end of 2008 to 9,160.5 MBbl at the end of 2009.

Trilogy’s reserves base is considered very strong, with solid proven reserves additions every year and probable reserves moving to the proven category. As in the past, Trilogy was able to replace all of the produced reserves at a very attractive cost without adding reserves in the undeveloped category. Proved reserves constitute 69 percent of the total booked reserves, the value has been evaluated using a conservative blow-down scenario and do not include any of the development locations that Trilogy’s has identified on known or emerging resource plays on Trilogy acreage.

The following table summarizes Trilogy’s gross reserves (before royalties and taxes) and reserves value for the year ended December 31, 2009 using forecast prices and costs.

Reserve Category Natural  Gas Crude Oil Natural Gas Liquid Boe  (6:1)  

Before tax
Net Present Value ($millions)

    BCF MBbl MBbl MBoe 0% 5% 10%
Proved              
  Developed Producing 204.8 5,070.6 5,777.7 44,985.8 1,430.1 1,041.6 822.7
  Developed Non-Producing 18.8 458.4 523.7 4,119.1 121.9 81.3 58.9
  Undeveloped 3.1 40.4 562.3 19.9 9.9 5.7
Total Proved 226.8 5,529.0 6,341.8 49,667.2 1,571.9 1,132.8 887.3
Probable 98.3 3,210.4 2,818.6 22,414.3 854.1 406.4 241.5
Total Proved plus Probable 325.1 8,739.4 9,160.4 72,081.6 2,426.1 1,539.2 1,128.9

Notes

  1. Columns and rows may not add due to rounding
  2. Reserve values were determined by Paddock Lindstrom & Associates Ltd. as of December 31, 2009, using the forward-pricing assumptions in effect by the firm at that date.
  3. Paddock Lindstrom evaluated 100 percent of Trilogy's reserves.
  4. No value has been assigned to tangible assets other than those associated with proved producing reserves.
  5. Reserve values have been evaluated under a blow-down scenario.
  6. Trilogy's financial instruments, which extend past January 1, 2010, have not been valued by Paddock Lindstrom.

2009 Yearend Reserve Reconciliation

Total proved reserves were 49,667 MBoe and proved plus probable reserves were 72,082 MBoe as of December 31, 2009, representing increases of 1.6 percent and 0.7 percent respectively as compared to reserves reported as at the 2008 year end.

The following table sets forth the reconciliation of Trilogy’s gross reserves for the year ended December 31, 2009 using forecast prices and costs:

  Total Proved Reserves Probable Reserves Total P+P Reserves
  Oil Gas NGL BOE Oil Gas NGL BOE Oil Gas NGL BOE
  MBbl Bcf MBbl MBoe MBbl Bcf MBbl MBoe MBbl Bcf MBbl MBoe
Dec. 31, 2008 6,124 220 6,022 48,860 3,496 100 2,625 22,713 9,619 320 8,647 71,573
2009 Production (675) (34) (872) (7,220) (675) (34) (872) (7,220)
Tech. Revisions 2 13 502 2,630 (326) (13) (104) (2,519) (325) 0 399 111
Reserve Additions 78 28 677 5,372 41 11 292 2,199 119 39 969 7,570
Acquisition 13 25 5 9 18 34
Econ. Factors 13 13
Dec. 31, 2009 5,529 227 6,342 49,667 3,211 98 2,819 22,414 8,739 325 9,161 72,082

Note

  1. Columns and rows may not add due to rounding

Reserve Replacement

Trilogy produced 7,220 MBoe of reserves in 2009 (19,780 Boe/d) and, through a successful drilling, completion and workover program and added a total of 8,002 MBoe of proved reserves and 7,694 MBoe of proved plus probable reserves from new additions related to capital investment and technical revisions (excluding acquisitions). Based on a total proved comparison, this is a 111 percent replacement of produced reserves and a 107 percent replacement of proved plus probable reserves. Since inception, Trilogy has strived to replace produced reserves at competitive finding and development costs. Trilogy’s 2009 results reflect the high quality of Trilogy’s assets and staff. Year over year reserve replacement will continue to be a top priority in Trilogy’s strategy.

For the past four years, Trilogy’s undeveloped reserves category has decreased year over year through the transfer of undeveloped reserves into the developed category. Trilogy’s proved undeveloped (PUD) reserve component has remained essentially unchanged at 569 MBoe at the end of 2008 versus 562 MBoe at the end of 2009. Trilogy does not book undeveloped locations as part of its reserves booking strategy. Reserves are booked after capital has been spent to prove the reserves, reducing the risk of negative reserve revisions in the future should the necessary work to enable such reserves’ reclassification to the developed category not occur. Proved undeveloped reserves represent only one percent of the total proved reserves and proved plus probable undeveloped reserves account for two percent of proved plus probable reserves.

Technical Revisions

Trilogy has consistently reported positive technical revisions to its proved and probable reserve categories. These are reserves that could have been assigned to the well when it was first drilled and completed, however National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities (NI 51-101) and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluations Handbook dictate that the evaluator must be at least 90 percent confident the producible reserves are present to be included as proven and 50 percent certain for probable reserve assignment. A significant portion of Trilogy’s reserves are in tight reservoirs that tend to have lower decline rates over time and will typically produce more reserves than expected on first evaluation. As a result, it may take up to three years for a well’s total reserves to be accurately assigned. Trilogy has been evaluating all of the producing assets to ensure that there is a thorough understanding of the associated reservoir and the production capabilities.

Reserves Life Index

Trilogy’s Reserve Life Index (RLI) for Total Proved reserves, has increased from 6.5 years to 6.9 years at the end of 2009. Based on total Proved plus Probable reserves the RLI has increased from 9.5 years at the end of 2008 to 10.0 years for the same period.

Proved Reserve Forecast

The graph below illustrates Trilogy's annual production forecast for Total Proved Reserves from the Reserve Reports for the past six years. Trilogy's annual production forecast increased from inception until 2007 when the annual production forecast declined due to asset sales in Marten Creek and Southern Alberta.

Production Decline Rate

Trilogy’s production decline rate has improved over the past three years due to the sale of Trilogy’s Marten Creek property and Southern Alberta assets. These properties had higher production declines relative to Trilogy’s remaining producing properties. The dispositions resulted in an improvement in the average quality of Trilogy’s reserve base, a lower production decline rate and a higher RLI. The graph below shows the annual average base production decline for a ten year period, illustrating an increase in the quality of Trilogy’s assets since its inception.

Ten Year Base Production Decline Rate (%)

Finding and Development Costs

Trilogy’s land base has provided significant drilling and completion opportunities that have been exploited over the past few years. The drilling success rate reflects the quality of the prospect inventory, undeveloped land and the producing asset base. The reserve potential of these lands, both developed and undeveloped, is expected to continue to provide Trilogy with low cost reserve additions. Trilogy has continued to acquire high quality land in its core areas to maintain its prospect inventory, ensuring exposure to multiple play types and benefits from developing technology.

  2009 Working Interest Capital Expenditures Change in Future Capital Expenditures Total F&D Capital
(millions of dollars) 2009 Capital Proved P+P Proved P+P
Land 2.8        
Geological and geophysical 1.3        
Drilling and completion 56.4 (2.3) (3.0)    
Production equipment, facilities and inventory 20.7        
Drilling Credits (7.4)        
2009 Presley Project Capital 15.3        
Total capital expenditures 89.1 (2.3) (3.0) 86.8 86.1
Total capital expenditures
(excluding 2009 Presley Project Capital)
73.8     71.5 70.8

Based on 2009 total capital expenditures, including the Presley Pipeline and Kayob North Plant projects, Trilogy's finding and development costs for reserve additions were $10.85/Boe for proven reserves and $11.19/Boe for proven plus probable reserves for the year ended December 31, 2009. Excluding the Presley project capital of $15.3 million, finding and development costs are further reduced to $8.94/Boe for proven reserves and $9.20/Boe for proven plus probable reserves.

2009 F&D Cost Proved Capital Proved Reserves Proved F&D Proved + Probable Capital Proved + Probable Reserves Proved +  Probable
F&D
($MM) MBoe $/Boe ($MM) MBoe $/Boe
Extensions, discoveries and revisions including Presley project capital 86.8 8,002 10.85 86.1 7,694 11.19
Extensions, discoveries and revisions excluding Presley project capital 71.5 8,002 8.94 70.8 7,694 9.20

It is important to note that infrastructure development such as the Presley Pipeline and Kaybob North Plant expansion capital projects provide enduring benefit to Trilogy's existing reserve base, in addition to future reserve additions.

Finding and development costs when calculated over the three-year period ended December 31, 2009, including the costs associated with the Presley projects were $11.73/Boe for proven reserves and $10.04/Boe for proven plus probable reserves. These numbers illustrate consistency in the cost of finding and developing the reserves on Trilogy's land base. Calculating finding and development costs over a longer period reduces the effect of spending capital in one year and booking the related reserves in the following year.

3 Year Average F&D Cost Proved Capital Proved Reserves Proved F&D Proved + Probable Capital Proved + Probable Reserves Proved + Probable F&D
($MM) MBoe $/Boe ($MM) MBoe $/Boe
Extensions, discoveries and revisions including Presley project capital 298.1 25,415 11.73 288.9 28,764 10.04
Extensions, discoveries and revisions excluding Presley project capital 282.8 25,415 11.13 273.6 28,764 9.51

Pre-Tax Net Asset Value

Net (Appraised) Asset Value Before Tax
(millions of dollars as at December 31, 2009)
   NPV @ 5%    NPV @ 10%
Proved plus probable reserve value (1) 1,539.2 1,128.9
Undeveloped Land Value (2) 70.6 70.6
6
Seismic value (3) 26.1 26.1
Inventory (3) 4.2 4.2
Total petroleum and natural gas assets
1,640.1 1,229.8
Net debt (4) 246.4 246.4
Net (appraised) asset value 1,393.7 983.4
Trust Units outstanding at December 31, 2009 (Fully Diluted) 113,493,834
Net (appraised) asset value per unit at December 31, 2009 $12.28 $8.66
     

Notes

  1. Before tax net present value of proved plus probable reserve at 5% and 10% discount rates using forecast price and costs
  2. Undeveloped land value at December 31, 2009, provided by Seaton Jordan & Associates Ltd.
  3. Internal evaluation
  4. Net debt is a non-GAAP measure consisting of long-term debt plus (minus) working capital deficiency (surplus).
  5. The above calculations may not be an indicative measure of the fair market value of a Trilogy unit or share.
  6. Columns and rows may not add due to rounding.

Commodity Price Forecast

Paddock Lindstrom & Associates Ltd.    
December 31, 2009 Price Forecast      
Year WTI @ Cushing Edm.      Ref.         Price Henry HUB AECO C CDN/US Exchange Rate
  $US/Bbl $C/Bbl US$/MMBTU C$/MMBTU  
2010 80.0 82.43 6.00 5.82 0.95
2011 82.5 85.02 6.50 6.29 0.95
2012 85.0 87.62 7.00 6.77 0.95
2013 90.0 92.84 7.50 7.28 0.95
2014 95.0 98.07 8.00 7.80 0.95
Next 5 years avg.          

Note

  1. All prices escalated at 2% per year after 2027